October 3, 2019

2019 ALDS Preview, Rays Versus Astros

The Rays and Astros kick off the ALDS with an early game Friday afternoon, 2 PM EDT. Here is a comparison of the two offenses:

Team Offense, (AL Ranks)
Statistic Tampa Bay Rays Houston Astros
Runs/Game 4.75 (6th-T) 5.68 (3rd)
Batting Avg. .254 (6th) .274 (1st)
OBP .325 (6th) .352 (1st)
Slugging Pct. .431 (7th) .495 (1st)
Home Runs 217 (11th) 288 (3rd)
Stolen Base % 72% (7th) 71% (9th)
 

Houston clearly owns the better offense, scoring nearly a run per game more than the Rays. What’s interesting here is that the Astros led the AL in all three average categories, but finished third in runs per game. The wound up about twenty home runs behind the Yankees and Twins, and that was enough to knock them off the top run-scoring spot.

Note that despite a low rank in home runs, the Rays managed to score at the same rank as their averages.

Here is a look at the pitching:

Team Pitching, (AL Ranks)
Statistic Tampa Bay Rays Houston Astros
Earned Run Avg. 3.65 (1st) 3.66 (2nd)
Runs Allowed/Game 4.05 (2nd) 3.95 (1st)
Strikeouts per 9 IP 9.9 (3rd) 10.3 (1st)
Walks per 9 IP 2.8 (1st-T) 2.8 (1st-T)
Home Runs per 200 IP 24.6 (1st) 31.5 (7th)
BABIP .291 (3rd) .272 (1st)
 

The two teams posted nearly identical ERAs, but the Astros were better defensively, allowing fewer runs overall. Both staffs are great at preventing runs. The ability to prevent home runs may wind up bringing the Astros scoring down closer to the Rays level.

This series will be a great contrast in the use of starting pitchers. The team game score comparison show this in detail. The Astros own the highest average game score in the AL, 56.9 points. They average 16.8 points for outs record in a game (they average 16.8 outs) and 3.5 points for pitching after the fourth inning. The pitchers who start and open for the Rays average just 13 outs per game, and 2.1 points for pitching after the fourth inning. They average 54.1 points for their game score, not that far behind the Astros. The alternate strategy the Rays employ produces good starts, and likely at a much lower cost than for the Astros.

The pitching will keep things close, but the Astros have too much offensive depth. I give Houston a 56% of winning the series.

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