For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.314 — Kevin Newman batting against Tyler Mahle.
• 0.314 — Victor Reyes batting against Ross Detwiler.
• 0.313 — Luis Arraez batting against Jorge Lopez.
• 0.313 — Whit Merrifield batting against Martin Perez.
• 0.311 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Tyler Mahle.
• 0.311 — Harold Castro batting against Ross Detwiler.
• 0.310 — Tim Anderson batting against Spencer Turnbull.
• 0.308 — Austin Meadows batting against Clay Buchholz.
• 0.308 — Michael Brantley batting against Dillon Peters.
• 0.306 — Tyler Naquin batting against Joe Ross.

Victor Reyes is not a great offensive player, but he is great at getting hits. His high BABIP, .383, makes up for his high strikeout rate. Note that he posted high BABIPs in the minors as well. As Detroit rebuilds, he’ll be a very good number six hitter, the kind you want to get a hit at the end of an offensive sequence.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.310, 0.739 — Tim Anderson batting against Spencer Turnbull.
• 0.314, 0.738 — Kevin Newman batting against Tyler Mahle.
• 0.313, 0.738 — Whit Merrifield batting against Martin Perez.
• 0.311, 0.736 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Tyler Mahle.
• 0.313, 0.735 — Luis Arraez batting against Jorge Lopez.
• 0.308, 0.733 — Michael Brantley batting against Dillon Peters.
• 0.305, 0.732 — Jose Altuve batting against Dillon Peters.
• 0.260, 0.731 — Howie Kendrick batting against Michael Clevinger.
• 0.290, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Lance Lynn.
• 0.287, 0.728 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Adrian Houser.

It’s the last day of the season, so I expect a number of players to get a day off, especially those on playoff teams. All the games start at 3 PM EDT, so watch the lineups today.

Newman is the consensus first pick, Merrifield the consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!