For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.344 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.336 — Tim Anderson batting against Ariel Jurado.
• 0.333 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Miles Mikolas.
• 0.327 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.327 — Daniel Santana batting against Ross Detwiler.
• 0.325 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Tanner Roark.
• 0.323 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.314 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tanner Roark.
• 0.310 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.308 — Willie Calhoun batting against Ross Detwiler.

It looks like a good day for the Astros. Brantley owns a fourteen game hit streak, during which he is hitting .458.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.344, 0.764 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.325, 0.759 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Tanner Roark.
• 0.333, 0.757 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Miles Mikolas.
• 0.336, 0.748 — Tim Anderson batting against Ariel Jurado.
• 0.327, 0.744 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.323, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.314, 0.743 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tanner Roark.
• 0.327, 0.735 — Daniel Santana batting against Ross Detwiler.
• 0.307, 0.725 — Raimel Tapia batting against Miles Mikolas.
• 0.301, 0.721 — Daniel Murphy batting against Miles Mikolas.

Charlie Blackmon is the consensus second pick, and the NN likes the Rockies against Mikolas.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!