For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.356 — Jeff McNeil batting against Nick Pivetta.
• 0.316 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
• 0.304 — Cody Bellinger batting against Taylor Clarke.
• 0.300 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jeff Samardzija.
• 0.300 — David Dahl batting against Jeff Samardzija.
• 0.299 — Wilson Ramos batting against Nick Pivetta.
• 0.293 — Michael Brantley batting against Dario Agrazal.
• 0.291 — Rafael Devers batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
• 0.291 — Alex Verdugo batting against Taylor Clarke.
• 0.290 — Justin Turner batting against Taylor Clarke.

McNeil went four for five Tuesday night to raise his batting average to .348, just five points behind Cody Bellinger. McNeil is a multi-hit game player. He collected a single hit in 18 starts this season. He collected multiple hits in 28 starts. He also collected zero hits in 13 games. Given his low walk rate, he should be a very good pick for the game.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.356, 0.776 — Jeff McNeil batting against Nick Pivetta.
• 0.316, 0.743 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
• 0.287, 0.729 — Howie Kendrick batting against Zac Gallen.
• 0.293, 0.724 — Michael Brantley batting against Dario Agrazal.
• 0.300, 0.723 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jeff Samardzija.
• 0.300, 0.721 — David Dahl batting against Jeff Samardzija.
• 0.281, 0.718 — David LeMahieu batting against Trent Thornton.
• 0.283, 0.715 — Christian Yelich batting against Austin Adams.
• 0.304, 0.710 — Cody Bellinger batting against Taylor Clarke.
• 0.283, 0.708 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Samardzija.

There is agreement on the top two, Blackmon the second choice. It looks like the NN exepcts the Rockies to have a good day against the Giants. McNeil’s .776 probability if the highest this season.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!