For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.298 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.295 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Gonzales.
• 0.284 — Cody Bellinger batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.275 — David Peralta batting against Jameson Taillon.
• 0.269 — Nick Castellanos batting against Rick Porcello.
• 0.265 — Javier Baez batting against Ross Stripling.
• 0.264 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
• 0.264 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.263 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.263 — Melky Cabrera batting against Zack Greinke.

Martinez’s hit average since the start of the 2017 season is at .282. That’s third among players with 600 PA in that time behind Jose Altuve and Daniel Murphy. Martinez walks a good amount, but still collects a high number of hits.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.298, 0.729 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.295, 0.708 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Gonzales.
• 0.275, 0.706 — David Peralta batting against Jameson Taillon.
• 0.284, 0.696 — Cody Bellinger batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.265, 0.695 — Javier Baez batting against Ross Stripling.
• 0.260, 0.686 — Adam Jones batting against Jameson Taillon.
• 0.264, 0.681 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
• 0.263, 0.680 — Melky Cabrera batting against Zack Greinke.
• 0.269, 0.679 — Nick Castellanos batting against Rick Porcello.
• 0.260, 0.678 — Mookie Betts batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

It’s a very similar list, with Martinez and Andrus 1-2. Note that the NN uses a weighted three-year hit average, with the current season accounting for half the weight. Martinez’s three year weight HA is .286. The league average for non-pitchers stands at .221

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!