The division previews continue with the AL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use Baseball-Reference WAR from 2018, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2018. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Cleveland Indians
- Position Player WAR: 20.4
- Pitcher Total: 22.6
- Core Total: 43.0
The Indians should have another easy run to a division title. No other team has a core WAR close to the Indians. They do start the season with the middle of their infield hurt, but it looks like Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor won’t be gone long. Lindor, along with third baseman Jose Ramirez give the Indians two very high WAR players on offense. Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Mike Clevinger give them three pitchers capable of five WAR seasons. Those five players alone put them ahead of every other team in the division.
Of course, everything could go wrong for the team. Great teams have been laid low by injuries before. There’s plenty of depth here, however, and plenty of room between the Indians and everyone else.
Cleveland, of course, has the longest World Championship drought in the game. They have some holes in this lineup, and they would be worth filling so the team can win in October, not just the regular season.
Minnesota Twins
- Position Player WAR: 16.4
- Pitcher Total: 10.3
- Core Total: 26.7
The Twins have a decently solid core with some upside. Byron Buxton bouncing back from a negative WAR season would put the Twins position players on par with the Indians. Michael Pineda could realize his potential after Tommy John surgery. Even if those two somehow combined for ten WAR, the Twins would still be short of the Indians. They would, however, have a shot at a wild card.
Detroit Tigers
- Position Player WAR: 8.0
- Pitcher Total: 1.5
- Core Total: 9.5
I just don’t see much upside in the Tigers numbers. Even if Miguel Cabrera stays healthy, his best years are behind him. A four WAR season would be nice, but that would be a reach at this point in Cabrera’s career. Tyson Ross posted half a WAR in a few inning last year, so maybe he has a two WAR season in him. I don’t see much from the rest of the roster. The Tigers look like a last place team in 2019.
Chicago White Sox
- Position Player WAR: 13.0
- Pitcher Total: 5.6
- Core Total: 18.6
The White Sox failed to jump start their rebuild by acquiring one of the big free agent hitters. Even if they had signed both of them, the team would still be short of a division, and even a wild card might not be very likely.
The White Sox are trying to build to a contender. While they have young players on the team, many of them are not that young, but already in their prime. A group of 23-year-olds might mature into a great unit. A group of 26-year-olds should already be there.
By the way, the Lucas Giolito trade so far turned out very poorly for the White Sox. While Adam Eaton had injury problems for the Nationals, he played well when off the illjured list. Giolito’s WAR is barely positive in two seasons with the team.
Kansas City Royals
- Position Player WAR: 12.5
- Pitcher Total: 2.9
- Core Total: 15.4
The Royals, up the middle, are fairly even with the Indians. That gives them strength at positions where that is tough to find. The Royals so far failed to fill in around that solid center, leaving their position players eight WAR short of the Indians.
The rotation doing well depends on Homer Bailey returning to form. It has been a long time since he was effective, however. He would need to be really good, and the team have every thing else go well for the Royals to return to the playoffs.
Summary
This is the only non-competitive division in baseball this year. The Indians should walk to a division title while the other teams continue to rebuild. Maybe the Twins have everything go right and make the playoffs, but I would not bet on it.
Probability of winning the division
- Cleveland Indians 60%
- Minnesota Twins 20%
- Chicago White Sox 10%
- Kansas City Royals 6%
- Detroit Tigers 4%
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