The 2019 series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers finished fifth in the majors and first in the National League in 2018 with 4.93 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Dave Roberts order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitcher slot, I used the Dodgers actual numbers from 2018. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 5.13
- Probable lineup: 4.91
- Worst lineup: 4.53
- Regressed lineup: 4.54
The Dodgers clearly believe in the strength of on-base percentage, as all eight of the position players do a good to excellent job of avoiding outs. In addition, five of the batters project to very good power, so they’ll produce the extra base hits to move all those runners closer to the plate. Note that the best Dodgers order produces the same runs per game as the best Oakland order, but the Dodgers does it with a pitcher batting.
The LAT agrees with the Dodgers lineup at two important slots, four and seven. Four is where the LAT tends to put a good power hitter who also gets on base. He can clean up the runners in front of him, or he can start a new offensive sequence. The seven hitter in the LAT is the one who finishes the offensive sequence, so power in important here. Pederson has that power.
I very much line Russell Martin batting ninth, as he will get on base for the top of the order, and as an older catcher, it will give him fewer plate appearances during the season. In general, if an NL team is going to bat a catcher eighth, they may as well give him a little extra rest by batting him ninth. They’ll also give the top of the order more RBI opportunity.
The Dodgers remade their lineup a little bit, and they appear to be at the level of last year. That was good enough, with their pitching, to get them to the World Series.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Cleveland Indians
- Oakland Athletics