The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers begin their NLDS on Thursday. Take a look at how the offenses compare:
| Statistic | Atlanta Braves | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 4.69 (3rd-T) | 4.93 (1st) |
| Batting Avg. | .257 (2nd) | .250 (8th) |
| OBP | .324 (5th) | .333 (2nd-T) |
| Slugging Pct. | .417 (5th) | .442 (1st) |
| Home Runs | 175 (8th) | 235 (1st) |
| Stolen Base % | 71% (8th) | 76% (4th) |
The Braves batting average figured greatly in their scoring. In general, on-base average and slugging percentage are a much better indication of the run scoring ability of an offense. The Dodgers, first in runs scored, did very well in those two categories, but posted a poor batting average. The Braves hit well with men on base, recording a higher BA and much more power in that situation, and with men in scoring position. The Braves made the most of their opportunities. The Dodgers were much more even over their situations, and actually hit for less power with men on base.
The Dodgers could afford that since they powered the ball so much. The first eight slots in the batting order each hit at least 20 home runs, with slots one and two each delivering 33 homers. Los Angeles can pop the ball out of the park at any time.
The pitching stacks up this way:
| Statistic | Atlanta Braves | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 3.75 (5th) | 3.38 (1st) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.06 (5th) | 3.74 (1st) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.8 (5th-T) | 9.5 (1st) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.9 (15th) | 2.6 (1st) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 21.0 (2nd) | 24.3 (8th-T) |
| BABIP | .281 (1st) | .286 (3rd) |
Note that the Dodgers sit at the top of the list in both run scoring and run prevention. Yet their record is only slighlty better than the Braves, third in runs per game and 5th in runs allowed per game. While the Braves played two games worse than expected based on their runs scored and allowed, the Dodgers played ten games worse. It seems to be based on those numbers the Dodgers should be considered the superior team.
One thing to watch in this series is the Dodgers strikeout pitchers against the Braves hitters. Atlanta struck out the third fewest times in the NL, which helped the offense to a great high ranked BA. Teams that put the ball in play can thwart high strikeout teams as more pressure is put on the defense. Given their low BABIPs, both teams appear to be good at stopping batted balls from becoming hits.
On the other side, the Braves pitchers issue a ton of walks, and the Dodgers batters draw a ton of walks. Unlike the strength against strength of the strikeouts, the walks give the Dodgers offense an advantage. When lots of men get on base, they eventually come around to score.
I like the Dodgers in this series. Their good defense should hold down the Atlanta hits, while the Dodgers offense walks their way to a series win.