Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.310 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.303 — David Peralta batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.301 — Starlin Castro batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.300 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zach Davies.
0.299 — Justin Turner batting against Jacob Nix.
0.297 — Raul Mondesi batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.296 — Miguel Andujar batting against David Hess.
0.296 — Adrian Beltre batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.296 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.291 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Barria.
0.290 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jose Urena.
0.288 — Manny Machado batting against Jacob Nix.
0.287 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.287 — Jeff McNeil batting against Austin L Voth.
0.286 — Matt Kemp batting against Jacob Nix.
0.286 — Starling Marte batting against Zach Davies.
0.285 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jakob Junis.
0.285 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.285 — Anthony Rendon batting against Corey Oswalt.
0.281 — Adam Frazier batting against Zach Davies.
0.281 — Jon Jay batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.279 — Ronald Torreyes batting against David Hess.
0.278 — Michael Brantley batting against Rick Porcello.
0.278 — Martin Prado batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.278 — David Freese batting against Jacob Nix.
Merrifield is 5 for 14 with no strikeouts against Zimmermann for his career.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.291, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Barria.
0.310, 0.726 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.296, 0.722 — Miguel Andujar batting against David Hess.
0.290, 0.719 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jose Urena.
0.300, 0.719 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zach Davies.
0.303, 0.717 — David Peralta batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.301, 0.712 — Starlin Castro batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.278, 0.712 — Michael Brantley batting against Rick Porcello.
0.299, 0.710 — Justin Turner batting against Jacob Nix.
0.267, 0.710 — Jean Segura batting against Mike Minor.
0.262, 0.709 — Daniel Murphy batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.296, 0.707 — Adrian Beltre batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.285, 0.707 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jakob Junis.
0.256, 0.706 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.260, 0.704 — J.D. Martinez batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.296, 0.704 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.286, 0.703 — Starling Marte batting against Zach Davies.
0.279, 0.701 — Ronald Torreyes batting against David Hess.
0.263, 0.700 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.287, 0.700 — Jeff McNeil batting against Austin L Voth.
0.266, 0.699 — Christian Yelich batting against Trevor Williams.
0.287, 0.699 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.285, 0.698 — Anthony Rendon batting against Corey Oswalt.
0.297, 0.698 — Raul Mondesi batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.272, 0.697 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jaime Barria.
0.273, 0.697 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jake Arrieta.
It’s an Altuve Merrifield double down day.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!