Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.330 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brett Anderson.
0.316 — Christian Yelich batting against Matt Harvey.
0.313 — Jeff McNeil batting against Zach Eflin.
0.311 — Wilson Ramos batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.308 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Harvey.
0.306 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Brett Anderson.
0.304 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.304 — Mike Trout batting against Brett Anderson.
0.304 — David Fletcher batting against Brett Anderson.
0.293 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.291 — Jean Segura batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.289 — Scooter Gennett batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.289 — Jose M Fernandez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.288 — Jose Altuve batting against Elias Roenis.
0.287 — Whit Merrifield batting against Chris Archer.
0.285 — Justin Upton batting against Brett Anderson.
0.282 — Hernan Perez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.282 — Melky Cabrera batting against Dylan Covey.
0.282 — Adam Jones batting against Marco Estrada.
0.281 — Manny Machado batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.279 — Francisco Lindor batting against Dylan Covey.
0.278 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.278 — Roman Quinn batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.278 — J.D. Martinez batting against Luis Severino.
0.277 — Alen Hanson batting against Robert Erlin.
0.277 — Tyler Naquin batting against Dylan Covey.
The Angels look strong against Brett Anderson.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.330, 0.735 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brett Anderson.
0.311, 0.733 — Wilson Ramos batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.288, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Elias Roenis.
0.316, 0.728 — Christian Yelich batting against Matt Harvey.
0.304, 0.726 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.313, 0.722 — Jeff McNeil batting against Zach Eflin.
0.291, 0.722 — Jean Segura batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.308, 0.722 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Harvey.
0.289, 0.719 — Scooter Gennett batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.278, 0.713 — J.D. Martinez batting against Luis Severino.
0.293, 0.712 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.287, 0.707 — Whit Merrifield batting against Chris Archer.
0.264, 0.704 — Miguel Andujar batting against David Price.
0.304, 0.702 — Mike Trout batting against Brett Anderson.
0.282, 0.701 — Adam Jones batting against Marco Estrada.
0.306, 0.700 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Brett Anderson.
0.246, 0.699 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray.
0.282, 0.698 — Melky Cabrera batting against Dylan Covey.
0.304, 0.697 — David Fletcher batting against Brett Anderson.
0.270, 0.697 — Mookie Betts batting against Luis Severino.
0.255, 0.697 — Jose Martinez batting against Touki Toussaint.
0.272, 0.696 — Corey Dickerson batting against Heath Fillmyer.
0.273, 0.695 — Jose Peraza batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.281, 0.694 — Manny Machado batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.260, 0.691 — Joey Wendle batting against Yohander Mendez.
0.278, 0.691 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
Simmons is the top pick in both lists, with Yelich and Ramos tied for second.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!