September 13, 2018

Massive Tie Scenario

The massive tie scenarios looked like they were going to have a massive improvement Wedensday night until DJ LeMahieu hit a walk-off home run against the Diamondbacks to drop Arizona three wins behind the Rockies. The probability of a three-way tie in the NL West now stands at 0.0105, with the most likely win total 88 wins for the Rockies, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks.

In the Wild Card race, the Cardinals lost and the Dodgers won, so the Diamondbacks did not lose ground there. The probability of a three-way tie there is 0.0085, with the most likely win total also 88.

I will note that a three-way tie between the Cardinals, Rockies, and Dodgers for the NL West and the second NL Wild card would result in a two-day playoff, with the NL West decided first, then the loser would play St. Louis for the right to face the first wild card team. The Rockies currently have lost the season series to both the Dodgers and Cardinals (with three games left against the Dodgers, however), so if the Rockies want to make the NLDS they might need to fly to Los Angeles, then St. Louis, then either Milwaukee or Chicago, then to whichever NL team owns the best record.

Ties are fun.

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