The National League West offers the best probability of a three-way tie after the Dodgers beat the Rockies and the Diamondbacks lost to the Braves. The probability of a three-way tie for the division lead stays at 0.0131, with the most likely win total for the tie at 88 wins.

The probability of the second NL Wild Card ending in a three-way tie dropped as the Cardinals won, keeping their lead on the Dodgers and extending their lead on the Diamondbacks. That probability dropped to 0.012. That tie would also likely happen at 88 wins.

With luck, all four teams will end the season at 88 wins. For Monday, the best results would see:

• The Dodgers can win or lose against the Reds.
• The Cardinals fall to the Pirates.
• The Diamondbacks beat the Rockies.

There are three weeks left, we’ll see how tight these teams can keep the races.