December 12, 2017

Bryce Harper’s Value Might Be Higher Than We Think

Dave Cameron notices a dearth of good, left-hand hitting outfielders:

22 left-handed OFs have posted a league-average or better batting line in regular playing time over the last three years, but Harper is the only one to crack the 130 wRC+ barrier, and only two others even get over 120 wRC+. A good chunk of the 22 guys on this list are no one’s idea of a slugger, as they got themselves to average offense with OBP, not SLG. No one is going to mistake Brett Gardner, Kole Calhoun, Jackie Bradley Jr., Nori Aoki, Melky Cabrera, Denard Span, Nick Markakis, or Ender Inciarte for a slugger.

So, yeah, where did all the lefty slugging outfielders go? The shift reducing the effectiveness of left-handed pull players could explain part of this evolution, but it feels overly sudden to have the shift already have changed the game this significantly. More likely it’s just a cyclical thing. Baseball does this sometimes.

The other thing I noticed recently is that the platoon advantage is shrinking, especially when it comes to right-handed pitchers. If right-handed batters can hit them almost as well as LHB, then there is less of a reason to stock up on LHB.

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