October 6, 2017

Playoffs Today

The Red Sox and Astros get back to baseball at 2 PM EDT Friday afternoon with Drew Pomeranz facing Dallas Keuchel. Pomeranz makes his first post-season start. He appeared in relief against Cleveland in the 2016 ALDS, and stuck out seven batters in 3 2/3 innings. He also allowed four hits, two walks, and a home run, so he couldn’t fool all the batters all the time.

Pomeranz posted a 3.32 ERA for the second year in a row, despite a decline in his numbers in terms of hits, walks, and strikeouts. He did manage to allow three fewer home runs. He once again outperformed his FIP, but this is something he has done throughout this career. Pomeranz made two fine starts against the Astros this season, allowing two runs in 12 1/3 innings.

Keuchel took a back seat to Verlander in the post-season rotation, showing how deep the Astros became with the addition of the former Tiger. Starting game two would allow him to start game five at home, where he is 25-8 with a 2.27 ERA over the last three seasons. That compares to 18-17 with a 4.25 ERA on the road.

At 5 PM EDT, the Yankees try to gain home field advantage as they send former Indians star CC Sabathia against current Indians ace Corey Kluber. Sabathia pitched well and won this season for the first time since 2012. Sabathia abandoned his four-seam fastball for a cutter last season, but the biggest difference is the effectiveness of his change up. I suspect that is do to better health. It’s the change up that goes when a pitcher is tired. Overall, it’s a nice adjustment for an older pitcher. With less velocity, Sabathia found a way to make his fast ball move more. Then the change not only comes in slower, but moves differently as well.

Kluber will likely win the Cy Young Award in the AL this season. He improved on a marvelous 2016 season in all three dimensions of this three true outcomes. Cutting down on home runs was especially impressive given the increase in long balls this season. Kluber led the AL in fewest walks allowed per nine innings, and the Yankees led the AL in batter walks this season. That’s a great strength against strength match-up.

The Cubs and Nationals open the NLDS at 7:30 PM EDT with Kyle Hendricks facing Stephen Strasburg. Both pitchers need to be looked at post-injury. Hendricks returned from an inflamed pitching had to post a 2.19 ERA in his final 13 games. Strasburg returned from a nerve issue to go 5-1 down the stretch with an 0.84 ERA. There’s good reason to believe that the aces for both teams are starting this game. This is the only game today without a pitcher whose last name begins with K, but at least they have a Kyle!

Finally, at 10:30 PM EDT the Diamondbacks send Taijuan Walker against the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw. At seasonal age 24, Walker figured out how to keep the ball in the park. During the previous two seasons, Walker allowed 1.54 HR per nine innings. In 2017, that dropped to 0.97 HR/9 IP. The most amazing thing about that is his move from Seattle, known to limit home runs, to Arizona, a park that helps home runs. He pitched well against the Dodgers this season, with two of his three starts being very good.

Kershaw is moving away from the best pitcher now discussion to the greatest pitcher ever discussion. Take the majors from 1969 on, the start of both divisional play and the lower mound, and Kershaw leads all pitchers with at least 1900 innings in ERA. Nineteen hundred innings isn’t enough to make him the best of all time, but it positions him to claim the title with a strong career in his 30s. The gap between his ERA and second place Jim Palmer is 0.44. His walk and home run rates are a little better than Palmer, but his strikeout rate is double that of Palmer (note this is only the second half of Palmer’s career). Maybe I still give Maddux the nod for his longevity and success at the height of the offensive explosion of the 1990s. It’s going to be a great discussion in ten years.

Kershaw absolutely dominated the Diamondbacks this season, 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA. Kerhsaw has been randomly dominant or hittable in the post-season, so we’ll see which one show up tonight.

Enjoy!

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