September 26, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.359 — Jose Ramirez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.346 — Austin Jackson batting against Bartolo Colon
0.331 — Eric Hosmer batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.325 — Francisco Lindor batting against Bartolo Colon
0.323 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.322 — Dee Gordon batting against Tyler Anderson
0.319 — Melky Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.318 — Ender Inciarte batting against Rafael Montero
0.317 — Whit Merrifield batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.311 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson

It’s never a bad day to pick Jose Ramirez, but today should be especially good. He puts the ball in play and Colon batters made contact against Colon.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.359, 0.764 — Jose Ramirez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.322, 0.753 — Dee Gordon batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.311, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson.
0.346, 0.744 — Austin Jackson batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.331, 0.742 — Eric Hosmer batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.273, 0.741 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.318, 0.739 — Ender Inciarte batting against Rafael Montero.
0.323, 0.736 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.319, 0.731 — Melky Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.280, 0.731 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jose Urena.

The NN agrees that Ramirez is the best pick. His teammate, Austin Jackson, is the consensus second pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Jackie Bradley, Jr. 26
Jorge Soler 24
Arismendy Alcantara 24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Aaron Hill 23
Adam Rosales 22
Kyle Higashioka 20
C.J. Cron 19
Rougned Odor 19
Taylor Featherston 19
Mark Zagunis 18
Stuart Turner 17
Guillermo Heredia 17
Chase D'Arnaud 15
Paul Janish 15
Sean Rodriguez 15
Jett Bandy 15
Willie Calhoun 14
Francisco Cervelli 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Tom Murphy 14
Chris Young 13
Carlos Gonzalez 13
Anthony Kemp 13
Roberto Perez 13
Nolan Fontana 13
Chris Coghlan 13
Lewis Brinson 13
Eugenio Suarez 13
Stephen Drew 13
Rajai Davis 13
Nick Ahmed 12
Ryan McMahon 12
Martin Prado 12
Danny Valencia 12
Pedro Severino 12
Carlos Santana 12
Darwin Barney 12
Stephen Piscotty 12
Jose Osuna 12
James McCann 12
Jarrod Dyson 12
Tyler Collins 11
Dominic Smith 11
Brock Stassi 11
Joe Panik 11
Adrian Gonzalez 11
Ketel Marte 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Rhys Hoskins 11
Trayce Thompson 11
Rafael Bautista 11
Scott Van Slyke 11
Carlos Perez 10
Andrew Susac 10
Andrew Stevenson 10
Thomas Pham 10
Alen Hanson 10
Zach Vincej 10
Matt Davidson 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Carlos Moncrief 10

Good luck!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *