Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.355 — Christian Vazquez batting against Brett Anderson
0.352 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Brett Anderson
0.349 — Rafael Devers batting against Brett Anderson
0.334 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Brett Anderson
0.328 — Mookie Betts batting against Brett Anderson
0.321 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Brett Anderson
0.320 — Sam Travis batting against Brett Anderson
0.318 — Avisail Garcia batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.316 — Ender Inciarte batting against Chris Flexen
0.315 — Ender Inciarte batting against Seth Lugo
0.315 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Gossett
0.315 — Blake Swihart batting against Brett Anderson

Wow, Brett Anderson is really bad. Over the last three seasons batters hit an even .300 against him with a .346 OBP, and this year that’s up to .335 with a .387 OBP. It looks like a good day for the Red Sox to shave at least one off their magic number.

Note that the Braves and Mets play a twi-night double header, so be careful which Braves you pick and when.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.306, 0.759 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.352, 0.755 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Brett Anderson.
0.355, 0.749 — Christian Vazquez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.297, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Aaron Nola.
0.349, 0.740 — Rafael Devers batting against Brett Anderson.
0.288, 0.737 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.318, 0.737 — Avisail Garcia batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.315, 0.736 — Ender Inciarte batting against Seth Lugo.
0.316, 0.735 — Ender Inciarte batting against Chris Flexen.
0.315, 0.735 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.334, 0.735 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Brett Anderson.

Altuve pops to the top as usual, but Pedroia and Vazquez are tied for the consensus first pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Good luck!