September 25, 2017

Games of the Day

The Nationals work their way down the east coast as they move to Philadelphia with Gio Gonzalez taking on Aaron Nola. Gonzalez has a chance of finishing 2017 with an ERA two runs lower than his 2016 performance. Note that Gonzalez’s improvement had nothing to do with three-true outcomes, but a drop in BABIP from .323 to a more normal .301. The lower BABIP comes from a lower line drive rate. Players may not have been missing the ball more often, but they were certainly missing good contact more often. Nola pitched well against the Nationals this season, with 21 K, 4 BB, and no home runs allowed in 16 1/3 innings.

In addition, the Nationals may activate Bryce Harper today. Harper has a chance to win a batting title. He and Charlie Blackmon each are batting .326, and Harper needs 30 PA to qualify for the batting title, which he should be able to reach in seven games. If he gets very hot and the other competitors fade a bit, Harper could fall short of the requirement and still win the batting title.

The Cardinals get one more shot at winning the division as they open a four-game series with the Cubs in St. Louis. A single Cubs win in the series eliminates St. Louis. Jon Lester and Luke Weaver pitch the opener. Lester owns a 6.81 ERA since August first, with 19 walks and six home runs in 39 2/3 innings. Even more telling is that he allowed 52 hits. Weaver pitched five scoreless innings in three relief stints, and now has a 2.27 ERA in eight starts. He struck out 62 and walked eight as a starter.

Finally, the Marlins visit their expansion twin, the Rockies as Odrisamer Despaigne faces Tyler Chatwood. Despaigne’s strength this season comes from limiting opponents power, as only 11 of the 43 hits against him went for extra bases. Chatwood owns a 5.85 ERA at home this season versus 3.49 on the road.

Enjoy!

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