Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.329 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo
0.325 — Jose Ramirez batting against Mike Leake
0.324 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luis Perdomo
0.322 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo
0.320 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs
0.319 — Dee Gordon batting against Patrick Corbin
0.317 — Austin Jackson batting against Mike Leake
0.313 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta
0.309 — Johan Camargo batting against Nick Pivetta
0.309 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo

Because I don’t do it often enough, let me sing the praises of Jose Ramirez. He very much flies in the face of the three-true outcome sluggers we see so often today. He accumulated 85 extra base hits so far this season without striking out much. Ramirez is part of a small group that doesn’t strike out a lot but still hits the ball hard; Justin Turner, Didi Gregorius, Daniel Murphy, Mookie Betts, and surprisingly, Joey Votto. Note that a number of these players often find their way into the top ten Beat the Streak lists.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.320, 0.762 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.329, 0.754 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.319, 0.749 — Dee Gordon batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.322, 0.748 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.325, 0.745 — Jose Ramirez batting against Mike Leake.
0.324, 0.743 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.313, 0.738 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.317, 0.729 — Austin Jackson batting against Mike Leake.
0.279, 0.727 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.309, 0.727 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo.

Charlie Blackmon is the consensus first pick, Altuve the consensus second pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Good luck!