September 24, 2017

Massive Tie Scenario

Once during this series I commented that a massive tie was probably going to happen among the teams trailing in the AL Wild Card race. This morning, the Angels, Rangers, and Royals are all 76-78, 4 1/2 games behind the Twins. There is not playoff for runner up, unfortunately.

The race for the second NL Wild Card slot did improve. The most likely outcome has the Rockies winning three more games for a total of 86. The overall probability of this three-way tie occurring is 0.036, up a bit from Saturday. Milwuakee moved into second place as both the Cardinals and Rockies lost. Here is the 86 win scenario:

Team Won-lost
Rockies 3-4
Brewers 4-3
Cardinals 5-3

Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation ignores that.

For today, the best outcomes would be:

  • The Cardinals defeat the Pirates.
  • The Brewers beat the Cubs.
  • The Rockies fall to the Padres.

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