Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.359 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard
0.355 — Gerardo Parra batting against Clayton Richard
0.350 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard
0.336 — Nolan Arenado batting against Clayton Richard
0.322 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.317 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey
0.316 — Joe Mauer batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.315 — Raimel Tapia batting against Clayton Richard
0.313 — Paul DeJong batting against Homer Bailey
0.310 — Yadier Molina batting against Homer Bailey

Richard signed a contract extension yesterday, two years for $6 million. The above list tells you why the money was so low.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.359, 0.773 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.350, 0.764 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard.
0.355, 0.763 — Gerardo Parra batting against Clayton Richard.
0.286, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Carson Fulmer.
0.336, 0.743 — Nolan Arenado batting against Clayton Richard.
0.299, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.322, 0.732 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.294, 0.727 — Jose Ramirez batting against Parker Bridwell.
0.317, 0.726 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.310, 0.724 — Yadier Molina batting against Homer Bailey.

It should be a good day for the Rockies and Reds. Any combination of Blackmon, LeMahieu, and Parra should produce the desired result.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Rosario is due.

Good luck!