September 16, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.349 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jordan Lyles
0.344 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jordan Lyles
0.340 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jordan Lyles
0.328 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jordan Lyles
0.310 — Dee Gordon batting against Zach Davies
0.306 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova
0.302 — Ian Desmond batting against Jordan Lyles
0.300 — Jose Altuve batting against Erasmo Ramirez
0.298 — Raimel Tapia batting against Jordan Lyles
0.297 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jason Hammel
0.297 — Jose Pirela batting against Tyler Anderson

Lyles was a poor reliever for the Rockies early in the season, and now he’s a poor starter for the Padres.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.349, 0.771 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.340, 0.763 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.344, 0.760 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.300, 0.755 — Jose Altuve batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.328, 0.744 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.310, 0.740 — Dee Gordon batting against Zach Davies.
0.293, 0.732 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.297, 0.727 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.286, 0.723 — Avisail Garcia batting against Myles Jaye.
0.306, 0.720 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova.

There is very close agreement, with Blackmon the unanimous first choice and either LeMahieu or Parra second.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Arismendy Alcantara 24
Yasmani Grandal 24
Corey Dickerson 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Allen Cordoba 23
Aaron Hill 23
Jorge Soler 22
Logan Morrison 21
Kyle Higashioka 20
A.J. Ellis 19
Taylor Featherston 19
Mark Zagunis 18
Alex Mejia 17
Ronald Torreyes 16
Melky Cabrera 16
Chase D'Arnaud 15
John Jaso 15
Charlie Blackmon 15
Paul Janish 15
Evan Gattis 15
Ryan Schimpf 14
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Francisco Cervelli 14
Miguel Montero 14
Tom Murphy 14
Cristhian Adames 14
John Hicks 14
Cameron Maybin 14
Gavin Cecchini 14
Stephen Drew 13
Cesar Puello 13
Stuart Turner 13
Lewis Brinson 13
Chris Coghlan 13
Jose Bautista 13
Manny Machado 13
Nolan Fontana 13
Nick Ahmed 12
Kaleb Cowart 12
Jarrod Dyson 12
Matt Wieters 12
Dexter Fowler 12
Joc Pederson 12
Martin Prado 12
Zach Granite 12
Travis Shaw 12
Daniel Robertson 12
Matt Chapman 12
Scott Van Slyke 11
William Middlebrooks 11
Mitch Garver 11
Jett Bandy 11
Nolan Arenado 11
Drew Butera 11
Welington Castillo 11
Brian Dozier 11
Brock Stassi 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Ryan McMahon 11
Taylor Motter 11
Steven Souza 11
Ryder Jones 11
Jabari Blash 11
Derek Fisher 10
Carlos Moncrief 10
Ian Happ 10
Rajai Davis 10
Alejandro De Aza 10
Russell Martin 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Gorkys Hernandez 10
Trayce Thompson 10
Brock Holt 10
Ryan Braun 10
Sandy Leon 10
Hanley Ramirez 10

Good luck!

2 thoughts on “Beat the Streak Picks

  1. Chris

    Do you keep track of the pattern that hitters have? For instance, about once per month, Blackmon will slump for about 3 games, but will usually get a hit almost every game after going hitless. In other words, his pattern predicts that he will rarely go hitless in back-to-back games more than once or twice monthly. Most consistent hitters have a pattern that can predict the likelihood that he will get a hit, based on what he has done recently.

    ReplyReply

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