Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.309 — Jose Altuve batting against Erasmo Ramirez
0.309 — Paul DeJong batting against Luis Perdomo
0.308 — Ryan Braun batting against Homer Bailey
0.307 — Hernan Perez batting against Homer Bailey
0.307 — Yadier Molina batting against Luis Perdomo
0.306 — Manuel Pina batting against Homer Bailey
0.302 — Jose Martinez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.301 — Orlando Arcia batting against Homer Bailey
0.297 — Thomas Pham batting against Luis Perdomo
0.296 — Neil Walker batting against Homer Bailey
0.296 — Travis Shaw batting against Homer Bailey
0.296 — Magneuris Sierra batting against Luis Perdomo

Altuve and DeJong tie for the top spot. Altuve is the only one on the list not batting against either Luis Perdomo or Homer Bailey. Bailey pitched extremely poorly this sesaon, but since the Reds are going nowhere, they appear to be giving him a chance to work his way back at the major league level.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.309, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.277, 0.737 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Stratton.
0.293, 0.736 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Conley.
0.275, 0.730 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.284, 0.724 — Eduardo Nunez batting against J.A. Happ.
0.307, 0.724 — Yadier Molina batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.283, 0.723 — Dee Gordon batting against A.J. Cole.
0.280, 0.722 — Ender Inciarte batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.289, 0.721 — Buster Posey batting against Chad Bettis.
0.263, 0.721 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.286, 0.721 — Jose Ramirez batting against James Shields.
0.309, 0.721 — Paul DeJong batting against Luis Perdomo.

The two systems agree on Altuve at the top. The Brewers hitters disappear from the list, and the Rockies take their place.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

I guess Boston was not Pablo Sandoval’s problem.

Good luck!