August 17, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.366 — Jose Altuve batting against Patrick Corbin
0.335 — Didi Gregorius batting against Steven Matz
0.321 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Patrick Corbin
0.320 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luke Sims
0.320 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Steven Matz
0.315 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson
0.313 — Paul DeJong batting against Jameson Taillon
0.312 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Patrick Corbin
0.311 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luke Sims
0.304 — Austin Jackson batting against Kyle Gibson

Be careful with Indians and Twins hitters today, as they are playing a split admission double header, and players tend to get rest. Gibson is pitching the early game. Altuve collected two more hits Wednesday night and is not batting .364.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.366, 0.793 — Jose Altuve batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.320, 0.754 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luke Sims.
0.311, 0.750 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luke Sims.
0.292, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.335, 0.743 — Didi Gregorius batting against Steven Matz.
0.302, 0.743 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luke Sims.
0.321, 0.738 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.315, 0.738 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.295, 0.727 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luke Sims.
0.313, 0.723 — Paul DeJong batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.320, 0.723 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Steven Matz.

Altuve is the unanimous choice, with Parra the consensus second choice. Parra went 3 for 4 Wednesday night and is now batting .346. Due to his missed time, however, he is no where near qualifying for the batting title.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Bradley Zimmer 39
Michael Freeman 34
Arismendy Alcantara 24
Raul Mondesi 23
Aaron Hill 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Matthew Szczur 23
Eduardo Escobar 21
Kyle Higashioka 20
Taylor Featherston 19
Mark Zagunis 18
Ben Revere 18
Andrelton Simmons 18
Jorge Soler 18
Tony John Wolters 16
Brandon Moss 16
Joc Pederson 16
Whit Merrifield 15
Greg Bird 15
Chase D'Arnaud 15
Allen Cordoba 15
Paul Janish 15
Kaleb Cowart 15
Rio Ruiz 15
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Rafael Lopez 14
Francisco Cervelli 13
Lewis Brinson 13
Stephen Drew 13
Ozzie Albies 13
Chris Coghlan 13
Martin Prado 12
Dee Gordon 12
Nick Ahmed 12
Cam Perkins 12
Kendrys Morales 12
Brandon Guyer 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Danny Ortiz 11
Chris Gimenez 11
Tucker Barnhart 11
Carlos Ruiz 11
Abraham Almonte 11
Brock Stassi 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Eric Thames 11
Jefry Marte 11
Travis D'Arnaud 11
Scott Van Slyke 11
Salvador Perez 11
Hernan Perez 10
Erik Gonzalez 10
Dusty Coleman 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Adrian Gonzalez 10
Tommy Joseph 10
Zach Granite 10
Jabari Blash 10
Jose Osuna 10
Jared W. Hoying 10
Carlos Correa 10
Yandy Diaz 10
Tom Murphy 10
Yan Gomes 10
Kris Bryant 10
Jordan Luplow 10
Jorge Polanco 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Tyler Collins 10
Yoan Moncada 10

Good luck!

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