August 16, 2017

Game of the Day

Giancarlo Stanton tries to make it seven games in a row with a home run as the Marlins host the Giants, Matt Cain getting the start. Through 2012, Cain did an excellent job of limiting home runs, despite being giving up a high percentage of fly balls, 0.76 HR per nine innings. Since then, his rate jumped to 1.33 HR per 9 IP. I suspect he no longer quite gets the backspin on his fastball. That causes the ball to drop less than the batter expects, so Cain used to get a higher percentage of his fly balls as pop ups. Stanton is a hitter who took advantage of Cain in this regard. Stanton is 8 for 22 against Cain with four home runs, tied for the most home runs he hit against any pitcher. Stanton also drew six walks while striking out just five times against Cain.

Stanton, of course, is on quite the run. In his last 35 games dating back to July 5, he hit 23 home runs, more than half his total for the season, and more than half his hits in that time period. The closest batter to him is Nelson Cruz with 15 HR. Joey Gallo‘s 13 HR in 86 AB is also impressive. I now estimate that Stanton has a probability of .053 of reaching 62 home runs, and a probability of 0.000003 of reaching 74.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *