Giancarlo Stanton homered again, his tenth in August and his fifth game in a row with a home run. The record for home runs in August by an NL player is 17 by Willie Mays (1965) and Sammy Sosa (2001). The AL record is 18 by Rudy York in 1937. The record for the consecutive game home run streak is 8, held by Dale Long, Don Mattingly, and Ken Griffey, Jr.

The probability of Stanton coming to the plate and hitting a home run is 0.064. So in four PA, his chance of hitting at least one home run is 0.23. So in three straight games his probability of hitting at least one in each game would be about 0.013. So he has about a 1 to 2 percent chance of the streak record.

The Giants and Marlins are tied at two in the top of the third inning.

Update: Here’s a spreadsheet that will continue to look at the probability of Stanton passing Maris and Bonds single season record. Maris holds the AL record, but some consider his mark more legitimate than the ones set in the steroid era. Right now, Stanton has about a 0.02 probability of passing Maris.