Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Didi Gregorius batting against Rafael Montero
0.323 — Jean Segura batting against Kevin Gausman
0.313 — Dee Gordon batting against Ty Blach
0.308 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Rafael Montero
0.304 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ty Blach
0.304 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Greinke
0.303 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ty Blach
0.302 — Gerardo Parra batting against Julio Teheran
0.302 — Mikie Mahtook batting against Martin Perez
0.300 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Kevin Gausman

Gregorius leads the field on a day with a light schedule. With a .309 BA and a .332 OBP, Gregorius’s ability to get on base is due almost entirely to his ability to collect hits. That makes him a great batter to choose to extend a streak.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.304, 0.764 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Greinke.
0.323, 0.746 — Jean Segura batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.302, 0.744 — Gerardo Parra batting against Julio Teheran.
0.297, 0.744 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Julio Teheran.
0.332, 0.741 — Didi Gregorius batting against Rafael Montero.
0.313, 0.736 — Dee Gordon batting against Ty Blach.
0.297, 0.735 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.284, 0.730 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Julio Teheran.
0.294, 0.728 — Jose Ramirez batting against Doug Fister.
0.290, 0.727 — Ender Inciarte batting against Chad Bettis.

Over a three-year period, Altuve is better at collecting hits, and the NN moves him to the top of the list. Jean Segura is actually the consensus first pick, finishing second in both lists.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Good luck!