July 28, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

Update: The Red Sox put David Price on the DL. Rick Porcello will pitch Friday night. That does not make a difference in the top then of either method.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.365 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.340 — Jean Segura batting against Rafael Montero
0.327 — Daniel Murphy batting against German Marquez
0.326 — Justin Turner batting against Matt Moore
0.324 — Ben Gamel batting against Rafael Montero
0.322 — Didi Gregorius batting against Austin Pruitt
0.316 — Gerardo Parra batting against Tanner Roark
0.314 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.314 — Chris Taylor batting against Matt Moore
0.313 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jordan Zimmermann

Altuve tries to become the third batter this season to achieve a 19-game hit streak. He may be the hottest players in the majors right now, although Gergorius is making a run as well, and Harper is no slouch. Altuve is just 1 for 9 against Jordan Zimmermann, however.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.365, 0.792 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.327, 0.768 — Daniel Murphy batting against German Marquez.
0.340, 0.760 — Jean Segura batting against Rafael Montero.
0.316, 0.749 — Gerardo Parra batting against Tanner Roark.
0.300, 0.738 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tanner Roark.
0.326, 0.738 — Justin Turner batting against Matt Moore.
0.303, 0.735 — David Peralta batting against Michael Wacha.
0.301, 0.734 — A.J. Pollock batting against Michael Wacha.
0.324, 0.733 — Ben Gamel batting against Rafael Montero.
0.322, 0.732 — Didi Gregorius batting against Austin Pruitt.

It’s a very similar list. The NN likes Rockies hitters against Tammer Roark more than the Log5 method does, and brings in some Diamondbacks as well. Altuve is easily the consensus pick, as the league is hitting .308/.363/.531 against Zimmermann.

If Altuve gets a hit tonight, the NN will record its longest streak of the season, 10 games. It reached nine games three times now. His .792 probability of getting a hit is the highest the NN produced this season.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
John Jaso 37
Michael Freeman 34
Jacob Lamb 26
Raul Mondesi 23
Aaron Hill 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Tyler Moore 20
Mitch Haniger 20
Kyle Higashioka 20
Jorge Soler 18
Mark Zagunis 18
Taylor Featherston 17
Christopher Herrmann 17
Keon Broxton 16
Jorge Polanco 16
Albert Pujols 16
Jed Lowrie 16
Ryon Healy 16
Rene Rivera 16
Chase D'Arnaud 15
Xander Bogaerts 15
Rio Ruiz 15
Mitch Moreland 15
Trevor Plouffe 15
Greg Bird 15
Paul Janish 15
Nelson Cruz 14
Jarrod Dyson 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Dexter Fowler 14
Arismendy Alcantara 13
Stephen Drew 13
Rajai Davis 13
Matt Chapman 13
Giovanny Urshela 13
Chris Coghlan 13
Avisail Garcia 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Matt Davidson 12
Leonys Martin 12
Rob Refsnyder 12
Jedd Gyorko 12
Martin Prado 12
Danny Espinosa 12
Nick Ahmed 12
Daniel Santana 11
Jae-Gyun Hwang 11
Alex Presley 11
Mark Trumbo 11
Brock Stassi 11
Scott Van Slyke 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Yandy Diaz 10
Adrian Gonzalez 10
Conor Gillaspie 10
Evan Gattis 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Khristopher Davis 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Tyler Collins 10
Jesus Aguilar 10
Tom Murphy 10
Eric Sogard 10
Jared W. Hoying 10
Kolten Wong 10
Carlos Correa 10
Andrew McCutchen 10

Good luck!

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