July 25, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.357 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Davies
0.322 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Pivetta
0.313 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Zach Davies
0.310 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jameson Taillon
0.309 — Bryce Harper batting against Zach Davies
0.308 — David Peralta batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.307 — Adam Lind batting against Zach Davies
0.304 — Corey Dickerson batting against Wade Miley
0.303 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jesse Chavez
0.303 — A.J. Pollock batting against Mike Foltynewicz

Bryce Harper makes the list, along with a number of other Nationals (poor Anthony Rendon gets left out). Harper and Altuve are tied for the longest current hit streaks at 16. Long-time reader Devon Young points out:

Not sure what the longest anyone’s batted .500 for, but I found that George Brett hit .507 over 17 games from 6/08 – 7/24 in 1980 (he was even hitless in one game). Altuve’s already 1-for-1 with a BB tonight, so if the game doesn’t get rained out then he probably only needs 1 more hit in the game to keep it up. Although, he could go 1-for-4 tonight and then 3-for-4 tomorrow to bring it back up to .500 for over a 17 game stretch. So he’s got a shot at pulling it off longer than Brett did.

With the update:

Altuve’s night is done. He just went 4-for-4 with a BB, bringing his average up to .527 during his now 16 game hitting streak. WOW! He could actually go 0-for-4 tomorrow and it would bring his BA down to .500 during his past 17 games, so he’s pretty much guaranteed to match Brett’s stretch of games hitting .500+.

Devon also brought up the possibility of Altuve hitting .400. It’s a long shot, but in the last two days he became 100 times more likely to hit .400, and since July 4th, he’s nearly 1000 times more likely.

Devon also points out that Altuve is a road warrior the last two seasons.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.357, 0.784 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Davies.
0.322, 0.770 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.308, 0.741 — David Peralta batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.310, 0.738 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.303, 0.737 — A.J. Pollock batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.303, 0.735 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.284, 0.730 — Jean Segura batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.267, 0.723 — Gerardo Parra batting against Lance Lynn.
0.298, 0.723 — Buster Posey batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.304, 0.720 — Corey Dickerson batting against Wade Miley.

Murphy is the unanimous pick. Harper drops to 16th at .711.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 34
John Jaso 31
Nomar Mazara 30
Jonathan Lucroy 25
Scott Schebler 25
Curtis Granderson 25
Aaron Hill 23
Chris Owings 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Kyle Higashioka 20
Jorge Soler 18
Mark Zagunis 18
Dansby Swanson 18
Mike Napoli 18
Jose Bautista 17
Nicholas Franklin 17
Taylor Featherston 17
Logan Morrison 17
Keon Broxton 16
Rio Ruiz 15
Christopher Herrmann 15
Jacoby Ellsbury 15
Allen Cordoba 15
Greg Bird 15
Paul Janish 15
Yunel Escobar 15
Chase D'Arnaud 15
Nick Castellanos 15
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Christian Vazquez 14
Maikel Franco 14
Ender Inciarte 14
Dexter Fowler 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Lewis Brinson 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Jarrod Dyson 14
Chris Coghlan 13
Alcides Escobar 13
Corey Dickerson 13
Kole Calhoun 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Martin Prado 12
Leonys Martin 12
Rob Refsnyder 12
Jacob Lamb 12
Andrew Romine 12
Rene Rivera 12
Nick Ahmed 12
Jorge Polanco 11
Scott Van Slyke 11
Matt Joyce 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Brock Stassi 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Jae-Gyun Hwang 11
Yonder Alonso 10
Andrew Benintendi 10
Adrian Gonzalez 10
Tyler Moore 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Tyler Collins 10
Mitch Haniger 10
Nick Markakis 10
Tom Murphy 10
Jared W. Hoying 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Carlos Correa 10
Yandy Diaz 10

Good luck!

2 thoughts on “Beat the Streak Picks

  1. Theron

    I did a quick search and found Larry Walker hit .506 during a 21 game hitting streak in 1999 so he may be the next guy to chase.

    Pepe Frias hit .500 over 39 games to start the 1978 season but then he only batted 7 times so perhaps he doesn’t fit the spirit of the requirements. 😀

    ReplyReply

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