July 23, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.334 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ivan Nova
0.319 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ivan Nova
0.312 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ivan Nova
0.311 — Eddie Rosario batting against Matt Boyd
0.306 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ivan Nova
0.302 — Scooter Gennett batting against Thomas Koehler
0.302 — Justin Turner batting against Sean Newcomb
0.301 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Cessa
0.301 — Yunel Escobar batting against Rick Porcello
0.300 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Rick Porcello

Ivan Nova is a good pitcher, but he is also a pitcher who gives up most of his earned base runners as hits. So even though not many batters reach against him, his hit average against is above the MLB average for batters. The Rockies have the type of hitters who take advantage of that. Porcello is similar, but at a higher level. He’s allowing a .300 BA and a .333 OBP. I believe the difference is simply that the Rockies batters have better stats, thanks in part to the ballparks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.334, 0.764 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ivan Nova.
0.319, 0.755 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ivan Nova.
0.297, 0.754 — Jose Altuve batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.312, 0.750 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ivan Nova.
0.272, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray.
0.301, 0.743 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Cessa.
0.306, 0.736 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302, 0.727 — Justin Turner batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.288, 0.727 — Jose Ramirez batting against J.A. Happ.
0.295, 0.724 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Parker Bridwell.

The two systems agree on Parra and Blackmon at the top of the list. The Angels don’t make the list against Porcello due to his better numbers long term.

In case you were wondering, Bryce Harper, who has the longest current hit streak at 15 games, has a .665 probability of getting a hit against Robbie Ray today. His three-year weighted hit average is just .244, due to the high number of walks he draws and his low hit total in 2016. Over his last 38 games, however, he is pretty much the definition of on fire.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 34
John Jaso 30
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Aaron Hill 23
Curtis Granderson 21
Nomar Mazara 21
Kyle Higashioka 20
Jonathan Lucroy 18
Mark Zagunis 18
Jorge Soler 18
Scott Schebler 18
Taylor Featherston 17
Dansby Swanson 17
Kevan Smith 17
Keon Broxton 16
Timothy Beckham 16
Daniel Descalso 16
Paul Janish 15
Chris Owings 15
Greg Bird 15
Jacoby Ellsbury 15
Chase D'Arnaud 15
Rio Ruiz 15
Jarrod Dyson 14
Lewis Brinson 14
Nicholas Franklin 14
Alex Avila 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Josh Donaldson 13
Chris Coghlan 13
Leonys Martin 12
Rob Refsnyder 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Andrew Romine 12
Martin Prado 12
Nick Ahmed 12
Russell Martin 12
Jae-Gyun Hwang 11
Buster Posey 11
Scott Van Slyke 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Yunel Escobar 11
Brock Stassi 11
Joey Votto 11
Rougned Odor 11
Jean Segura 11
Christian Vazquez 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Christopher Herrmann 11
Allen Cordoba 11
Jake Marisnick 10
Jared W. Hoying 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Adrian Gonzalez 10
Carlos Sanchez 10
Tom Murphy 10
Yandy Diaz 10
Adam Duvall 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Carlos Correa 10
Jedd Gyorko 10
Tyler Collins 10

Good luck!

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