Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.353 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Tillman
0.326 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.324 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chad Kuhl
0.323 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo
0.320 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Chris Tillman
0.318 — Jean Segura batting against Masahiro Tanaka
0.309 — Denard Span batting against Luis Perdomo
0.308 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chad Kuhl
0.308 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony Banda
0.307 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Chris Tillman
0.307 — Josh Reddick batting against Chris Tillman

Daniel Murphy is so good, he makes the top ten against a pitcher who has yet to make his major league debut! Banda is rated as league average in hit average by the system, since there is no MLB data available. Throughout his minor league career, batters hit Banda decently despite his high strikeout rate. His AAA numbers were probably hurt by playing in the Pacific Coast League.

Otherwise, the Log5 method likes the Astros against Chris Tillman.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.353, 0.777 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Tillman.
0.308, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony Banda.
0.324, 0.758 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.318, 0.753 — Jean Segura batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.308, 0.749 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.326, 0.745 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.302, 0.744 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.323, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.305, 0.739 — David Peralta batting against Tanner Roark.
0.303, 0.736 — Jose Ramirez batting against Marcus Stroman.

Murphy does even better with the NN, but Jose Altuve takes the top spot in both systems. Parra would be the consensus second choice.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Good luck!