Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Justin Turner batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.320 — Daniel Murphy batting against Eddie Butler
0.309 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.304 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.303 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Wacha
0.300 — Buster Posey batting against German Marquez
0.299 — David Peralta batting against Nick Pivetta
0.296 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Eddie Butler
0.295 — Corey Seager batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.288 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jeff Samardzija

There is a light schedule today, so there is a huge gap between the top two players on the list and the tenth slot. Turner is batting .393 on the season, but doesn’t yet qualify for the batting title. The Dodgers played 77 games so Turner would need 239 PA to qualify. He is at 225 PA, and starters will gain one or two PA per game on what’s needed. Expect him to pop on the leader board in a couple of weeks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.320, 0.770 — Daniel Murphy batting against Eddie Butler.
0.340, 0.756 — Justin Turner batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.309, 0.740 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.304, 0.738 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.299, 0.735 — David Peralta batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.300, 0.730 — Buster Posey batting against German Marquez.
0.283, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Eddie Butler.
0.296, 0.723 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Eddie Butler.
0.303, 0.717 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Wacha.
0.295, 0.715 — Corey Seager batting against Ricky Nolasco.

This is a tough choice today between Murphy and Justin Turner. Log5 likes Turner much better, the NN likes Murphy much better. Turner’s match-up against Nolasco is better in 2017. Turner owns a .333 hit average, Nolasco .269. For the Murphy-Butler match-up in 2017, those hit averages are .311 for Murphy, .216 for Butler. With the league hit average at .232, Butler should hurt Murphy’s ability to collect a hit. But on a three-year scale, the Murphy-Butler match-up is better, .303 for Murphy, .270 for Butler against .273 for Turner, .258 for Nolasco. Murphy is also playing today in a park more conducive to hits, with a three-year hit average of .234, versus .219 for Turner’s park. The NN weights the three-year hit averages more heavily, so Murphy comes out ahead.

Murphy is 1 for 2 career against Butler. Turner never faced Nolasco.

DJ LeMhieu is 10 for 24 against Samardzija, and Blackmon is 8 for 27.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Good luck!