Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.351 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Anderson
0.342 — Corey Dickerson batting against Chris Tillman
0.337 — Brandon Phillips batting against Zach Davies
0.335 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Davies
0.331 — Ender Inciarte batting against Zach Davies
0.325 — Daniel Murphy batting against Scott Feldman
0.317 — Buster Posey batting against Rafael Montero
0.316 — Eddie Rosario batting against Josh Tomlin
0.315 — Tyler Flowers batting against Zach Davies
0.311 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Josh Tomlin

No real surprises here. Batters hit for a high average and high power against Davies, so it might be a good day to double down on Braves.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.325, 0.769 — Daniel Murphy batting against Scott Feldman.
0.351, 0.762 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.337, 0.754 — Brandon Phillips batting against Zach Davies.
0.331, 0.746 — Ender Inciarte batting against Zach Davies.
0.335, 0.743 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Davies.
0.342, 0.743 — Corey Dickerson batting against Chris Tillman.
0.317, 0.740 — Buster Posey batting against Rafael Montero.
0.293, 0.739 — Jean Segura batting against Francis Martes.
0.294, 0.736 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Parker Bridwell.
0.293, 0.734 — David Peralta batting against Jeremy Hellickson.

The NN likes the Braves against Davies as well, but Daniel Murphy once again is the top pick, with Justin Turner the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Good luck!