Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.333 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson
0.322 — Daniel Murphy batting against Homer Bailey
0.314 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Garza
0.314 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Garza
0.313 — Scooter Gennett batting against Joe Ross
0.311 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Garza
0.310 — David Peralta batting against Ben Lively
0.309 — Joey Votto batting against Joe Ross
0.307 — Xander Bogaerts batting against J.C. Ramirez
0.306 — Jose Peraza batting against Joe Ross

Ramirez against Gibson came in second six days ago. Gibson gave up eight hits in six innings in that game. Ramirez is hitting .458 since then, although he did not start Friday night. It was just a night off, however.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.322, 0.770 — Daniel Murphy batting against Homer Bailey.
0.333, 0.747 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.307, 0.743 — Xander Bogaerts batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.314, 0.743 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Garza.
0.310, 0.742 — David Peralta batting against Ben Lively.
0.311, 0.738 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Garza.
0.314, 0.734 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Garza.
0.286, 0.731 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.280, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.298, 0.722 — Avisail Garcia batting against Daniel Gossett.

Murphy stands way out in front of the rest of the pack. Bailey’s make his 2017 debut, and he only pitched 34 1/3 innings the last two seasons in the majors. During his rehabilitation, he pitched 16 2/3 innings at three minor league levels, striking out 17, walking three, and allowing one home run. He posted a 1.08 ERA. Bailey healthy is a very good pitcher, but the Washington lineup does not resemble a minor league team. Murphy is 2 for 5 against Bailey in his career. Ramirez and Murphy are tied for the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Good luck!