June 18, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.350 — Justin Turner batting against Bronson Arroyo
0.323 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson
0.321 — Wilmer Flores batting against Joe Ross
0.319 — Elvis Andrus batting against Christian Bergman
0.316 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson
0.313 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom
0.309 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.309 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Joe Ross
0.308 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Joe Musgrove
0.307 — Dee Gordon batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.307 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ty Blach

Turner was hot before he went on the disabled list, and continued once he came back so that he now owns a 12-game hit streak. He is not hitting for much power, as 16 of his 20 hits are singles, but for the sake of a hit streak, that doesn’t matter at all. Arroyo pitched poorly this season, allowing 87 hits in 68 innings, and 47 of those hits went for extra bases. It’s a Beat the Streak match made in heaven.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.313, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.350, 0.757 — Justin Turner batting against Bronson Arroyo.
0.307, 0.745 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ty Blach.
0.323, 0.737 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.308, 0.734 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.307, 0.733 — Dee Gordon batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.319, 0.732 — Elvis Andrus batting against Christian Bergman.
0.291, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ty Blach.
0.316, 0.729 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.272, 0.729 — Jose Altuve batting against David Price.

I am very surprised Murphy beats out Turner. There are six hit average parameters fed into the NN. One is the mean hit average for all non-pitchers, so that is the same for everyone, .231. One is the park hit average, and Turner wins that one .234 to .221. So Turner is playing in a park that should help hitters, Murphy in one that should hurt hitters. For the current year and weighted three year hit averages, Arroyo comes in at .294/.260, deGrom .238/.227. In 2017, Turner beats Murphy .324 to .318. The three-year weight hit average is where Murphy wins big, .305/.369. The NN sees that as the most important parameter, and Turner’s wins in the others are just not enough to push him past Murphy. Turner never faced Arroyo before, but Murphy is 3 for 6 against deGrom. This is a very tough pick for your game today.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 29
Jett Bandy 24
Raul Mondesi 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Brandon Belt 21
Kyle Higashioka 20
Conor Gillaspie 19
Daniel Robertson 19
Greg Bird 15
Jose Pirela 15
Xander Bogaerts 15
Robbie Grossman 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Aaron Hill 13
Chris Coghlan 13
Jesus Sucre 12
Kelby Tomlinson 12
Lucas Duda 12
Domingo Santana 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Leonys Martin 12
Orlando Calixte 11
Matthew Szczur 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Matt Olson 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Marcell Ozuna 11
Andrew Benintendi 11
Craig Gentry 11
Starling Marte 11
Peter Kozma 11
Deven Marrero 11
Adrian Gonzalez 10
Scooter Gennett 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Boog Powell 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Ryan Braun 10
Hanley Ramirez 10
Yandy Diaz 10
Tyler Collins 10
Stuart Turner 10
David Freese 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Jared W. Hoying 10
Jorge Polanco 10
Kris Bryant 10

If you believe in players being due, then Xander Bogaerts is your man.

Good luck!

2 thoughts on “Beat the Streak Picks

  1. David Pinto Post author

    Steve H » Indeed. That’s the other thing I like about the NN. It calculates the probability in the game when a pitcher like that starts. It’s not the probability of getting a hit off that pitcher per se.

    ReplyReply

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