May 29, 2017

Games of the Day

The Yankees open an important AL East series at Baltimore. The Orioles losing streak stands at seven games as they sit in third place, 4 1/2 games behind New York. Jordan Montgomery takes on Dylan Bundy. Montgomery posts interesting stats. His opposition slash line comes in at .228/.304/.363, which I would imagine would lead to a pretty good ERA. His 4.30 ERA is okay. His .205 BA with runners in scoring position would lead in the same direction. Montgomery allowed four of his five home runs with men on base, however, so 12 of the 24 runs he allowed came on the five homers. Bundy is somewhat similar to Montgomery with a .235/.292/.389 slash line against, but five of the seven home runs against him were solo shots.

David Price winds up missing 1/3 of the season as he makes his 2017 debut for the Red Sox. He’ll face David Holmberg of the White Sox in a battle of excellently named pitchers! Price had an interesting stint at Pawtucket for his rehabilitation. He pitched 5 2/3 innings in two starts, struck out eight, but allowed 12 hits and nine runs. The positive take away is the eight strikeouts. Holmberg makes his first start of the season after dominating in his 10 1/3 bullpen innings. He allowed just three hits and one run.

First place teams clash in Minnesota as the Astros send Brad Peacock against the Twins and Ervin Santana. Peacock makes his second start of the season, having worked 12 games in relief. He struck out eight in 4 1/3 innings in his first start, and struck out 30 in 20 2/3 innings for the season. Santana leads the AL in ERA with a 1.80 mark, 0.01 runs better than Houston ace Dallas Keuchel. So a good offensive day by the Astros would have the added benefit of moving Keuchel into first place. It looks to me as if the Twins defense has a lot to do with Santana’s success. His three-true outcomes are good but not great, yet he allowed just a .134/.228/.238 slash line. He owns a highly improbable .136 BABIP, and his xFIP stands at 4.72. His line drive percentage is very low at 14.4%, which no doubt helps the defense. Batters appear to be lofting the ball more against him, and those fly balls are falling into gloves. FanGraphs does rate the Twins as the best defense in the league.

Finally, the Rays send Erasmo Ramirez against the Rangers and Martin Perez. Both teams are well within striking distance of the AL Wild Card, and the Rays still have a shot at the AL East title. Ramirez lowered his walk rate this season, about one every six innings. That helped bring his ERA under 3.00. Perez gives up plenty of hits and walks, but all his home runs came with the bases empty. He bends but doesn’t break, as opponents are hitting just .229 against him with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

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