May 29, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.319 — Corey Dickerson batting against Martin Perez
0.317 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Moore
0.311 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Matt Moore
0.311 — Matt Kemp batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.309 — Zack Cozart batting against Marcus Stroman
0.309 — Travis Shaw batting against Robert Gsellman
0.302 — Manuel Pina batting against Robert Gsellman
0.300 — Chris Owings batting against Trevor Williams
0.300 — Hernan Perez batting against Robert Gsellman
0.298 — Eric Sogard batting against Robert Gsellman

Dickerson is having an MVP like season at the plate, and Perez allows a high BA, but also walks a good number of batters. Dickerson is the only Rays player making the list, as Tampa Bay in general uses players that favor walks over hits. In the AL, the team has a below average BA, but an above average OBP. That’s a poor formula for extending hit streaks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.317, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Moore.
0.288, 0.736 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.280, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.319, 0.733 — Corey Dickerson batting against Martin Perez.
0.311, 0.728 — Matt Kemp batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.297, 0.723 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.296, 0.718 — David Peralta batting against Trevor Williams.
0.300, 0.716 — Chris Owings batting against Trevor Williams.
0.269, 0.716 — Xander Bogaerts batting against David Holmberg.
0.311, 0.714 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Matt Moore.

Note that the Brewers against Gsellman fall off the list. Gsellman’s 2017 hit average is high, but that’s the fourth ranked of the six parameters used by the NN. The Log5 method ranks the five parameters it uses fairly evenly. Daniel Murphy is the consensus pick, but he has missed a few games due to a stomach bug. Dickerson would be the consensus second choice. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 29
Ivan Nova 27
Johnny Cueto 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Scott Feldman 21
Christian Arroyo 21
Tyler Anderson 21
Eric Thames 20
Kyle Higashioka 20
Taylor Motter 19
Conor Gillaspie 19
Buster Posey 17
Danny Espinosa 16
Zack Greinke 16
Chris Carter 15
Mike Zunino 15
Mike Foltynewicz 15
Luke Maile 15
Greg Bird 15
Ben Revere 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Kyle Hendricks 14
Julio Teheran 14
Cameron Rupp 14
J.D. Martinez 14
Dansby Swanson 14
Adam Jones 14
Brandon McCarthy 14
Brock Stassi 13
Erick Aybar 13
Mookie Betts 13
Michael Wacha 13
Emilio Bonifacio 13
Raimel Tapia 13
Bartolo Colon 13
Christopher Herrmann 12
Chad Kuhl 12
Rajai Davis 12
Kyle Schwarber 12
Logan Forsythe 12
Leonys Martin 12
Timothy Adleman 11
Carlos Gonzalez 11
Lance Lynn 11
Brian McCann 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Zack Wheeler 11
Robert Gsellman 11
Craig Gentry 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Starling Marte 11
Yan Gomes 11
Thomas Koehler 10
Erik Gonzalez 10
Ryan Braun 10
Yandy Diaz 10
Alex Wood 10
Aaron Hill 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Stuart Turner 10
Matthew Adams 10
Yasmany Tomas 10
Chris Gimenez 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Kennys Vargas 10
Gregor Blanco 10
Jered Weaver 10
Tyler Collins 10
Lonnie Chisenhall 10
Max Kepler-Rozycki 10
Matt Garza 10
Devin Mesoraco 10

Good luck!

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