Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.337 — Jean Segura batting against Rick Porcello
0.335 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kyle Gibson
0.334 — Eric Hosmer batting against Josh Tomlin
0.334 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Christian Bergman
0.328 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.320 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.314 — Michael Moustakas batting against Josh Tomlin
0.314 — Zack Cozart batting against Zach Eflin
0.313 — Whit Merrifield batting against Josh Tomlin
0.312 — Salvador Perez batting against Josh Tomlin

That’s an interesting list, with few of the usual suspects appearing. The top batter is Segura against the reigning Cy Young Award winner. Porcello, this season, allowed a high batting average with few walks, so he is the type of pitcher a batter wants to face to extend a streak. Otherwise, the Royals against Josh Tomlin provides fertile ground for picking a batter.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.334, 0.759 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Christian Bergman.
0.337, 0.755 — Jean Segura batting against Rick Porcello.
0.311, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.335, 0.738 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.320, 0.729 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.304, 0.728 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Christian Bergman.
0.328, 0.727 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.301, 0.726 — Mookie Betts batting against Christian Bergman.
0.334, 0.725 — Eric Hosmer batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.311, 0.720 — Chris Owings batting against Jimmy Nelson.

Bogaerts rises to the top of the NN list, but Segura is the consensus pick. Bogaerts comes out on top as Bergman is worse on the three-year hit average parameter (.244 in 2017, .285 2015-2017) while Porcello is worse this season (.280 in 2017, .244 2015-2017). The NN gives more weight to the three year averages for both hitters and pitchers. Daniel Murphy missed two games in a row with an illness, so be careful if you pick him today to make sure he is in the starting lineup.

As always, your top pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Saturday was a perfect example of that. Everything pointed to Charlie Blackmon getting a hit. Both methods had him on top. The NN gave him the highest probability of the season. He was playing in a great hitters park. He was facing a struggling veteran pitcher, and hit that pitcher well. He went 0 for 4 as Adam Wainwright pitched a gem.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Good luck!