Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.363 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Adam Wainwright
0.349 — Daniel Murphy batting against Clayton Richard
0.337 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Clayton Richard
0.330 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Wainwright
0.323 — Nolan Arenado batting against Adam Wainwright
0.322 — Mark Reynolds batting against Adam Wainwright
0.315 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.315 — Alexi Amarista batting against Adam Wainwright
0.311 — Bryce Harper batting against Clayton Richard
0.310 — Chris Owings batting against Chase Anderson

Blackmon is coming off a strong night in which he went four for four, missing the cycle by a double. He hit his twelfth home run and his seventh triple. With 11 doubles, he’s now slugging .634 on the season. For our purposes, he’s also over 200 PA for the season, so his 2017 hit average of .311 is getting full credit. As a point of historical comparison, Joe DiMaggio held a career .311 hit average going into the 1941 season. Wainwright has become a very hittable pitcher. To top it all off, against pitchers Blackmon faced at least 10 times, he has the highest BA against Wainwright!

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.363, 0.777 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.349, 0.768 — Daniel Murphy batting against Clayton Richard.
0.330, 0.749 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.303, 0.742 — Jean Segura batting against Brian Johnson.
0.323, 0.731 — Nolan Arenado batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.337, 0.730 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Clayton Richard.
0.315, 0.730 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.287, 0.727 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Rob Whalen.
0.322, 0.723 — Mark Reynolds batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.310, 0.722 — Chris Owings batting against Chase Anderson.

Murphy computed to a very high probability yesterday, and Blackmon tops that today. Blackmon is the unanimous first choice, and Murphy the unanimous second choice. It might be a good day to double down. As always, however, your best pick has around a 25% chance of not getting a hit.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Good luck!