May 25, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.334 — Adam Frazier batting against Bartolo Colon
0.330 — Chris Owings batting against Zach Davies
0.330 — David Peralta batting against Zach Davies
0.328 — Josh Harrison batting against Bartolo Colon
0.319 — Brandon Drury batting against Zach Davies
0.311 — Matt Kemp batting against Ivan Nova
0.310 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Zach Davies
0.305 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Martinez
0.304 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ivan Nova
0.302 — Buster Posey batting against Eddie Butler

Adam Frazier has not played much, just 66 games in his rookie year of 2016 and 27 games this season. He hit consistently well, however, and this season owns a .370/.458/.500 slash line and .328/.397/.445 for his career. That’s in 267 PA, so both his 2017 and three year hit averages are being heavily adjusted toward the league averages at this point. Still, against a pitcher who is usually throwing over the plate, he makes a good match-up.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.330, 0.739 — David Peralta batting against Zach Davies.
0.305, 0.737 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Martinez.
0.286, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.296, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.296, 0.733 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.302, 0.732 — Buster Posey batting against Eddie Butler.
0.330, 0.731 — Chris Owings batting against Zach Davies.
0.334, 0.731 — Adam Frazier batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.328, 0.730 — Josh Harrison batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.304, 0.728 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ivan Nova.

David Peralta bubbles to the top of the NN rankings, with Frazier dropping to eighth. If Frazier keeps hitting well, we should see him moving up steadily. Davies is giving up a ton of hits this season, even in games where he collects a high number of strikeouts. For today, Peralta is the NN pick and the consensus pick. Fair warning, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 29
Gorkys Hernandez 23
Ivan Nova 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Dexter Fowler 22
Johnny Cueto 21
Kyle Higashioka 20
JaCoby Jones 19
Justin Upton 19
Conor Gillaspie 19
Austin Romine 19
Matt Harvey 19
Scott Feldman 19
Tyler Anderson 18
Adam Rosales 17
Patrick Kivlehan 16
Daniel Straily 16
Greg Bird 15
Eddie Rosario 15
Christian Arroyo 15
Carlos Sanchez 15
Kyle Hendricks 14
Julio Teheran 14
Mike Foltynewicz 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Yasiel Puig 14
Zack Greinke 14
Avisail Garcia 13
Raimel Tapia 13
Travis D'Arnaud 13
Freddy Galvis 13
Luke Maile 12
Nick Castellanos 12
Bartolo Colon 12
Carlos Correa 12
Leonys Martin 12
Mark Canha 12
Ty Blach 12
Brandon McCarthy 12
Roberto Perez 12
Chad Kuhl 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Elvis Andrus 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Brock Stassi 11
Starling Marte 11
Craig Gentry 11
Robert Gsellman 11
Austin Barnes 11
Ezequiel Carrera 11
Michael Wacha 11
Danny Espinosa 10
Yandy Diaz 10
Seth Smith 10
Matt Garza 10
Alex Avila 10
Adam Jones 10
Jose Ramirez 10
Stuart Turner 10
Martin Maldonado 10
Eric Hosmer 10
Lonnie Chisenhall 10
Thomas Koehler 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Emilio Bonifacio 10
Joe Panik 10
Jered Weaver 10
Scott Schebler 10

Good luck!

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