Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

Warning: My source for pitching match-ups has the Rockies facing Zach Eflin. Other sources have the Rockies facing Jerad Eickhoff. I may update these lists once there is agreement.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.327 — Zack Cozart batting against Josh Tomlin
0.312 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Josh Tomlin
0.311 — Scooter Gennett batting against Josh Tomlin
0.311 — Welington Castillo batting against Kyle Gibson
0.310 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zach Eflin
0.307 — Jose Peraza batting against Josh Tomlin
0.304 — Joey Votto batting against Josh Tomlin
0.301 — Buster Posey batting against John Lackey
0.299 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zach Eflin
0.298 — Adam Frazier batting against Mike Foltynewicz

Tomlin allows a .321 BA and a .337 OBP this season. He gives up lots of hits and very few walks, exactly the perfect pitcher to keep a hit streak going. Cozart is having a career year and comes up number one on a day with an abbreviated schedule.

The NN with Park comes up with a bit of a different list:

0.310, 0.739 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zach Eflin.
0.299, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zach Eflin.
0.297, 0.723 — David Peralta batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.301, 0.720 — Buster Posey batting against John Lackey.
0.327, 0.719 — Zack Cozart batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.293, 0.715 — Corey Dickerson batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.288, 0.714 — Matt Kemp batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.297, 0.714 — Chris Owings batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.277, 0.713 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Vargas.
0.298, 0.713 — Adam Frazier batting against Mike Foltynewicz.

The better long-term hitters move past Cozart on this list, and almost all the other Reds are eliminated. Cozart and Blackmon tie for consensus pick. This is a tough day to make a choice. As always, your best choice will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Good luck!