April 27, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.304 — Kevin Pillar batting against Adam Wainwright
0.299 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Moore
0.298 — Justin Turner batting against Matt Moore
0.291 — A.J. Pollock batting against Jered Weaver
0.287 — Ezequiel Carrera batting against Adam Wainwright
0.287 — Darwin Barney batting against Adam Wainwright
0.285 — David Peralta batting against Jered Weaver
0.285 — Brandon Phillips batting against Noah Syndergaard
0.281 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers
0.280 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Edinson Volquez

It’s a good day to be a Blue Jay as Log5 continues to dislike Adam Wainwright.

The NN with Park produces this list:

0.274, 0.728 — Daniel Murphy batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.291, 0.726 — A.J. Pollock batting against Jered Weaver.
0.299, 0.719 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Moore.
0.285, 0.714 — David Peralta batting against Jered Weaver.
0.285, 0.713 — Brandon Phillips batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.268, 0.710 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.275, 0.709 — Mookie Betts batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.304, 0.706 — Kevin Pillar batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.298, 0.705 — Justin Turner batting against Matt Moore.
0.257, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Corey Kluber.
0.281, 0.703 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
0.256, 0.703 — Trea Turner batting against Antonio Senzatela.

The NN does not care that you are a rookie pitching well at Coors Field. It’s also kinder to Adam Wainwright. Corey Seager appears to be the consensus choice, although after the last two night it’s tough not to pick Trea Turner. Your best picks will still fail 25 to 30 percent of the time.

The was a question yesterday about the worst matchup. That would be:

0.183, 0.522 — Jarrod Saltalamacchia batting against Carlos Martinez.

So even the worst pick has a better than 50/50 chance of getting a hit.

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