Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Jose Altuve batting against Josh Tomlin
0.305 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard
0.303 — A.J. Pollock batting against Clayton Richard
0.302 — Daniel Murphy batting against Christopher Rusin
0.294 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Clayton Richard
0.293 — Zack Cozart batting against Zach Davies
0.293 — Carlos Beltran batting against Josh Tomlin
0.293 — Starlin Castro batting against Rick Porcello
0.292 — Nori Aoki batting against Josh Tomlin
0.291 — Chris Owings batting against Clayton Richard

It’s a good day to play for the Diamondbacks. Of course, lately, it’s usually a good day to play for the Diamondbacks. While I like to believe they are doing better through better analytics, the improvement may have more to do with the health of Peralta and Pollock.

Starlin Castro’s good start is putting him in the top ten. He is a high hit, low walk player, the kind who should be good at streaking when he’s hitting well.

The NN with Park produces this list:

0.321, 0.742 — Jose Altuve batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.302, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.303, 0.723 — A.J. Pollock batting against Clayton Richard.
0.305, 0.721 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard.
0.294, 0.706 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Clayton Richard.
0.277, 0.704 — Brandon Phillips batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.293, 0.704 — Starlin Castro batting against Rick Porcello.
0.274, 0.702 — Trea Turner batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.282, 0.700 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.293, 0.699 — Carlos Beltran batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.267, 0.699 — Dee Gordon batting against Vincent Velasquez.

Altuve and Murphy come out even on this list. Altuve rates high due his his own bat and the poor quality of his opponent. Murphy owns the better bat right now, and is playing in a park that produces a lot of offense. Murphy ended the current NN streak at three as he went hitless Monday night. Maybe it’s a good day to double down.

At the other end of the spectrum, here are the players with the most plate appearances since their last hit (or since the start of the season):

I don’t know how much longer the Dodgers can play Chase Utley at second base. Chase should take a cue from the career of Mike Schmidt. Schmidt played poorly in April in his last season, and knew his career was over. He was smart enough to hang up his spikes at that point. I supposed that since Utley is making $2 million, he might just let the Dodgers release him instead.