April 7, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.296 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.289 — Ryan Braun batting against Brett Anderson
0.289 — Jose Abreu batting against Phil Hughes
0.286 — Melky Cabrera batting against Phil Hughes
0.286 — Hunter Pence batting against Luis Perdomo
0.283 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo
0.280 — A.J. Pollock batting against Josh Tomlin
0.280 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vincent Velasquez
0.277 — Brandon Crawford batting against Luis Perdomo
0.275 — Denard Span batting against Luis Perdomo
0.275 — Tim Anderson batting against Phil Hughes

I’m not surprised the Log5 method likes batters against Luis Perdomo. He gave up a ton of hits last season. Choosing batters against Phil Hughes makes sense, too, as he issues few walks, and that should put more balls in play.

Here is the top of the NN list:

0.280, 0.715 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.296, 0.707 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.280, 0.707 — A.J. Pollock batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.289, 0.698 — Ryan Braun batting against Brett Anderson.
0.289, 0.697 — Jose Abreu batting against Phil Hughes.
0.286, 0.694 — Melky Cabrera batting against Phil Hughes.
0.273, 0.692 — Jean Segura batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.272, 0.691 — Devon Travis batting against Matt Andriese.
0.286, 0.691 — Hunter Pence batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.283, 0.689 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo.

For the second day in a row, Daniel Murphy pops to the top. What’s dominating here is Murphy’s .302 hit average since the start of 2015. All the others are good hitters against a bad pitcher. The NN appears to pick up on Murphy’s extreme long-term success, and vaults him to the top. The consensus pick would be Nunez.

You can follow the results on this Google Spreadsheet.

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