March 27, 2017

2017 AL East Preview

The division previews begin with the AL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2016, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2016. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Chris Sale

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (41) delivers a pitch during spring training. Photo: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Boston Red Sox

  • Position Player WAR: 29.6
  • Pitcher Total: 20.1
  • Core Total: 49.7

The Red Sox come into the 2017 season with the strongest core WAR in the division by far. They are balanced, as they own the highest position player core WAR and the highest pitcher core WAR. They rank this high despite replacing David Ortiz‘s 4.4 WAR with Mitch Moreland‘s 0.4 WAR.

That number looks very solid. There is potential downside in David Price‘s injury and Dustin Pedroia‘s age, as those two combined for 9.7 WAR in 2016. On the other hand, Andrew Benintendi offers plenty of upside, as does a rejuvenated Pablo Sandoval. Even if Price isn’t up to snuff, the duo of Rick Porcello and Chris Sale at the top of the rotation is something most teams dream about.

This is the first time in a while where there has been a clear team to beat the AL East. The Red Sox are that team. They have a young core that carries the team and should be good for a long time.

Josh Donaldson

Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson keeps his eye on the ball during spring training. Photo: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports


Toronto Blue Jays

  • Position Player WAR: 20.7
  • Pitcher Total: 15.9
  • Core Total: 36.6

The Blue Jays certainly have enough talent in their core to compete for the division title or at least a wild card slot. Their pitching falls a little short of the Red Sox. They seem to be where Boston was two years ago, with a rotation of number two and number three starters. The upside would be Marcus Stroman turning into a true ace.

Things are not so bright on the offensive side. Half of the position player WAR comes from two players, Josh Donaldson and Kevin Pillar. Pillar’s contribution is mostly on defense. Donaldson is at the age where his offense is more likely to decline than improve, as are Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Bautista. Devon Travis is the only truly young player in that starting lineup. This is a good team, but they will need to start folding some more good, young players into the order, or they will wind up looking like the early season version of the 2016 Yankees.

Manny Machado

Manny Machado spent most of his 2017 spring training playing in the WBC. Photo: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports


Baltimore Orioles

  • Position Player WAR: 20.2
  • Pitcher Total: 12.0
  • Core Total: 32.2

The Orioles are nearly even with the Blue Jays in terms of position player WAR, but lack the pitching depth that gives Toronto the edge. The Orioles starters are fine, but none of them look like their WAR is out of line with their track records. I don’t expect a breakout on the upside from them. They are all okay, so the offense will need to be very good for them to win.

Like the Blue Jays, a lot of the position player WAR lies in the third baseman. In the case of the Orioles, that’s Manny Machado. Unlike Donaldson of the Blue Jays, however, Machado is still young and improving, and has not yet reached his prime years.

The rest of the team is getting long in the tooth, so again, don’t expect a lot of upside with the Orioles. Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter are experts at getting the most out of their players, but I would be somewhat surprised if the team as constructed now made the playoffs. This is no longer an evenly matched division where a team could hope for a little good luck to put them over the top.

Gary Sanchez

Gary Sanchez shows off his hitting form in spring training. Photo: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

New York Yankees

  • Position Player WAR: 15.4
  • Pitcher Total: 13.5
  • Core Total: 28.9

The Yankees are easily the toughest team to predict in this division. They are going young at catcher, first base, and rightfield, and may get even younger in the infield by the end of the season. I have Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, and Aaron Judge down for a combined 3.9 WAR, but there is a real possibility they could combine for 12 WAR this season. If so, the Yankees are in the wild card hunt. Of course, they could also flame out. Both Bird and Judge did a great job getting on base in the minors with good power, and if they come anywhere near that, they might along with Sanchez form a new and very tough heart of the order.

The Yankees pitching should be fine. They have some upside with Aroldis Chapman as his 2.7 WAR came from just five months of work in 2016. Michael Pineda always seems to have upside, but even another three WAR season from him helps a lot. The Yankees have another MLB unknown on the pitching side in Chad Green. Green had much better control than he showed in the majors so far, so in the core there are four players with major upside potential. It may not be enough to put the Yankees in first place, but all four working out to the upside will make the Yankees a playoff contender. More importantly, they would give New York a new core to surround with decent talent.

Chris Archer

Chris Archer offers a ray of hope for Tampa Bay fans. Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Position Player WAR: 15.8
  • Pitcher Total: 9.9
  • Core Total: 25.7

The Rays have a lot of upside potential in their rotation, with the possible exception of Blake Snell due to his high walk rate. Chris Archer had an off year in 2016, Alex Cobb had missed a full season due to injury, and Matt Andriese was still getting used to the majors. The starting pitching should be the strong suit of the Rays, and I would not be surprised if the pitching core would up with more WAR than the position player core.

And that is the problem. Where does the offense and defense come from. There are a lot of okay players in the lineup, but Evan Longoria is no longer young, and can’t compete with Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson. He’s no longer the superstar that can carry the offense, and it doesn’t look like there is anyone else who can step up.

The Rays are not a bad team. They are likely facing four division rivals all of which may be competing for a wild card. They don’t seem to have the fire power to keep up with those four, and will look worse than they actually are as they lose a lot of games to their stronger division rivals.

Probability of winning the division

  • Boston Red Sox 50%
  • Toronto Blue Jays 16%
  • Baltimore Orioles 15%
  • New York Yankees 14%
  • Tampa Bay Rays 5%

The Red Sox core alone looks like they could post a win total in the mid 90s. That gives Boston room for a major injury and some decline by the veterans without losing the division. The Blue Jays, Orioles, and probably the Yankees fight for second place and a wild card slot. The Rays will be waiting for next year.

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Correction: Changed hasn’t to has at the end of the Red Sox comment.

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