The 2017 series on team offense continues with the San Francisco Giants. The Giants finished ninth in the National League and nineteenth in the majors in 2016 with 4.41 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Bruce Bochy order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, slot, I used the actual values for the Giants in 2016. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.72
Probable lineup: 4.51
Worst lineup: 4.26
Regressed lineup: 4.25
Bochy and the LAT agree on the two, four, and six slots in the order, so the lineup winds up being slightly closer to the optimum than to the worst lineup. Joe Panik and Jarrett Parker are more likely to do a better job of getting on base than Brandon Crawford and Eduardo Nunez, so burying them that deeply in the lineup hurts. Basically, Panik and Parker at the bottom of the order set up pitchers for RBI. I suppose that’s okay when Madison Bumgarner is pitching, but I would rather have Buster Posey or Brandon Belt coming up behind them.
The Giants also demonstrate what I call the “veteran” problem. Denard Span used to be a good lead-off hitter, but the Giants have better options now. Span, however, has a history, is a good clubhouse influence, and signed a nice contract. It’s very tough to move him out of the top of the lineup, when his skill set now works better lower down. He will need to hit very poorly to move someone else to the top of the order.
That said, it looks like the Giants are poised to be slightly better offensively than they were in 2016. If Parker has a break-out year and Pence stays healthy, Giants fans could see a big improvement.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Help support this series and the LAT by donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- Chicago Cubs
- Cleveland Indians
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Seattle Mariners
- Texas Rangers
- Washington Nationals
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Baltimore Orioles
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Houston Astros
- Minnesota Twins
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Cincinnati Reds