The 2017 series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (LAnaheim). The Angels finished tenth in the American League and seventeenth in the majors in 2016 with 4.43 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Mike Scioscia order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.86
Probable lineup: 4.77
Worst lineup: 4.48
Regressed lineup: 4.42
Scioscia gets the lineup very close to the optimum. He basically gets the lead-off man right in Yunel Escobar, and the bottom third right with Danny Espinosa, Andrelton Simmons, and Martin Maldonado. The fifth best lineup has that very arrangement.
The LAT likes Mike Trout batting second, where the Angels have him batting third. Batting second, he gets a few more plate appearances during the season, and sets up the decent power coming up behind him. Batting third, he should drive in a few more runs.
The big disagreement is about Albert Pujols. Pujols’s ability to get on base aged poorly. Marcels projects him at .312 for the 2017 season, a far cry from his glory days with the Cardinals. His power remains decent, but in the fourth slot he’s as likely to be starting an offensive sequence as finishing one. Batting sixth, he would be more often finishing, where his power comes in handy. His contract and reputation likely keep him from batting too far down in the order.
While the Angels and Twins are projected to score about the same number of runs, the Twins are a much more balanced lineup, while the Angels are very Trout dependent. If something happens to the Angels star outfielder, there is little hope for the offense.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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