March 14, 2017

Team Offense, Los Angeles Dodgers

The 2017 series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers finished seventh in the National League and fourteenth in the majors in 2016 with 4.48 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Dave Roberts order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, slot, I used the actual values for the Dodgers in 2016. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.89
Probable lineup: 4.66
Worst lineup: 4.38
Regressed lineup: 4.35

My thought typing in the lineup to the LAT was that the order was upside down. With the exception of Corey Seager batting second, the LAT agreed with me. The LAT likes Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, and Andrew Toles around Seager, while the default lineup has them six, seven, and eight. At least the pitchers will be getting plenty of RBI opportunities!

Some people might argue that Puig’s projection of a .345 OBP and a .445 slugging percentage is optimistic, but he is still in his early prime, and those numbers are below his career averages. By the way, if Puig was actually 31 years old instead of 26, his numbers would make a lot more sense.

I don’t want to criticize the lineup too much, since apart from Seager, the starters project to OBPs between .334 and .352. They are the Lake Woebegone of OBP, everyone above average. All those are good, and all could easily vary 20 or 30 points from their projections. The Dodgers take the value of OBP literally, and every one batting will have plenty of chances to drive in runs.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Help support this series and the LAT by donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Previous posts in this series:

1 thought on “Team Offense, Los Angeles Dodgers

  1. Pingback: Yeah, but will they hit? | Elysian Fields

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