The 2017 series on team offense continues with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers finished sixth in the American League and tenth in the majors in 2016 with 4.66 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Brad Ausmus order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 5.12
Probable lineup: 5.06
Worst lineup: 4.80
Regressed lineup: 4.61
As in the previous Toronto post, the Tigers get the bottom of the order right. The top lineups are unanimous in batting James McCann eighth and Jose Igleaias ninth. The LAT also agrees on J.D. Martinez as a number two hitter. The fifth best order agrees on the six through nine hitters. That means the default lineup captures 81% of the optimum.
While batting Martinez second is a great move, Ausmus doesn’t make what would be the really bold move of batting Miguel Cabrera in the lead-off slot. I understand this, and I suspect that Cabrera wants to bat lower in the order so he is coming up with RBI opportunities in the first inning. I don’t quite understand batting Ian Kinsler lead-off, however. I’d rather see Victor Martinez there. His power is waning, but he still does a good job of getting on base. Speed won’t matter, since there is plenty of power behind him to push him around the bases.
The main worry with the Tigers offense is age. Victor Martinez, Kinsler, and Cabrera are all getting older and are a bit injury prone (as is the younger Igleaias). If the team stays healthy, they’ll put up some big run numbers.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series: