U.S.S. Mariner likes the Drew Smyly trade. The Mariners send three prospect to the Rays, (OF Mallex Smith, SP prospect Ryan Yarbrough and IF Carlos Vargas) to the Rays for a solid starter:
Armed with a low-90s four seam fastball with incredible vertical ‘rise’ and a big curve ball, Smyly was somewhat unheralded as a prospect, but enjoyed some immediate success in Detroit thanks to consistently above-average K- and strand-rates. Upon arriving in Tampa, Smyly targeted the very top of the zone and increased both his K rate as well as his fly-ball rate. He’s the last guy you’d go to if you needed a ground ball, but his 2016 GB rate of 31% is nearly off the charts – only the drain-circling Jered Weaver posted a lower mark among qualified pitchers.
As you might expect, this has brought with it a fairly severe problem with the long ball. His HR/FB rates are just about average, but that’s still problematic if you give up fly balls like Smyly does. He pitched around it in 2015 thanks to the best K rate of his career and a great strand rate. In 2016, though, his strand rate collapsed and that turned a lot of solo HRs into big innings, and his ERA and FIP rose substantially. Of course, even last year, in a sub-par year that saw his turn in the rotation skipped to clear his head, he was worth 2 fWAR. This is a pitcher with an admirably high floor, even if Safeco goes homer-happy again.
As for the prospects, who wouldn’t want a player named Mallex? Smith isn’t exactly young. He’ll play 2017 as a 24-year-old, so he should be major league ready after a career .382 OBP in the minor leagues. A great base stealer, he swiped at a 79% clip. If the Rays can install him at the top of the order this season, they’ll have him at a very reasonable cost through his prime seasons.
Yarbrough is a year older, and pitched all of 2016 at AA, for the first time. He went 12-4 with an impressive ERA, but he was old for that level. His strength is stinginess with free passes.
Vargas will play 2017 as an 18-year-old, and he’s yet to play in a US minor league. Anything can happen.
The Mariners get a good pitcher, the Rays get a potential long term lead-off man, a potential decent starter, and a young infielder for whom the sky is the limit. Not bad on either side.