December 6, 2016

Who Needs Prospects!

The Red Sox gave up at least four very good prospects in two deals on Tuesday at the winter meetings. The big deal involved four prospects to the White Sox for pitching ace Chris Sale.

In what will probably be the blockbuster deal of the entire offseason, the White Sox sent LHP Chris Sale to Boston this afternoon in exchange for two of the highest-upside prospects in baseball, Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech, as well as tools-goof outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe and arm-strength lottery ticket Victor Diaz.

The Red Sox also picked up a reliever from the Brewers:

The Red Sox have landed right-handed reliever Tyler Thornburg in exchange for a trio of players: big-league corner infielder Travis Shaw and prospects Mauricio Dubon and Josh Pennington.

There are very good scouting reports on the young players at the links. Four of them, Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, and Dubon all have high upsides.

Thornburg is a high strikeout pitcher who also produced consistently low BABIPs, so he not only misses bats up appears to produce poor contact. He’s a reliever, however, so everything with him is small sample sizes.

Sale on the other hand, consistently produces WARs around five per season. That worth about $40 million a year, but the Red Sox will pay about $39 million for three years of Sale if they exercise the club options. That’s a lot of potential residual value. That’s probably worth three great prospects, especially because Boston is already an excellent team. This should push them to the top of the AL, not just the AL East.

Of course, this is somewhat short term thinking. When Theo Epstein was with the Red Sox, there was always tension with the higher ups due to Theo wanting to build a team that could win consistently, and the owners wanting to always win now. With the Cubs, Epstein was allowed to build up the farm system that should make the Cubs the team to beat for a while. Boston just traded away pieces that would allow them to get younger and improve over time for a huge improvement right now. There’s nothing wrong with that, but it’s the move of a team that hasn’t won in a long time, while the Red Sox are one of the most successful teams of the 21st Century.

The White Sox are in a position to grow into a power house, especially if they draft well. Maybe in ten years we’ll be arguing about which Chicago team assembled the better dynasty.

6 thoughts on “Who Needs Prospects!

  1. Ptodd

    Top 20 prospects have a 50% bust rate, 21-100 prospects have a 70% bust rate, and hard throwing youngsters (95+) have almost a 50% chance of needing TJS before they reach age 24

    Moncada s swing has a lot of holes in it and really is not a thing of beauty and Kopech has some make up issues. These are the 2 center pieces of the deal. Maybe they become stars some day but its not a sure thing. Win now before the Yankees become good again. Red sox have not won a game in the post season in 7 of 8 seasons, the fans are impatient

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  2. Art Kyriazis

    “Sweet Caroline”

    Where it began,
    I can’t begin to knowin’
    But then I know it’s growing strong

    Was in the spring
    And spring became the summer
    Who’d have believed you’d come along.

    Hands, touchin’ hands
    Reachin’ out, touchin’ me, touchin’ you

    Sweet Caroline
    Good times never seemed so good
    I’ve been inclined
    To believe they never would
    But now I…

    …look at the night
    And it don’t seem so lonely
    We fill it up with only two.

    And when I hurt,
    Hurtin’ runs off my shoulders
    How can I hurt when holding you?

    Warm, touchin’ warm
    Reachin’ out, touchin’ me, touchin’ you

    Sweet Caroline
    Good times never seemed so good
    I’ve been inclined,
    To believe they never would
    Oh, no, no

    Sweet Caroline
    Good times never seemed so good
    Sweet Caroline,
    I believe they never could
    Sweet Caroline
    Good times never seemed so good
    Sweet Caroline…

    art kyriazis, philly

    ReplyReply

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